Saturday, July 7, 2012

Where Does Noble Energy Stand?


Average Sawtooth Based on Bi-Weekly Combos
Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NBL)

Many people are skeptical of energy stocks, given the turbulent nature of the sector, as of late. In the midst of all of the turmoil, however, Noble Energy, Inc. is one of the few shining stars among the countless companies in this industry. Much can be said of its current prices compared to industry standards. Their previous close was up from $94.46, to $94. 51. including a positive volume change of .05%.

Strategic drilling for resources and shrewd planning has led to a veritable windfall for Noble Energy. Evidence of this can be found everywhere, as the firm continues to forge significant deals (New discoveries made off the shores of Israel). The individual surge is absolutely incredible, as other major energy firms such as Chevron, for example, are taking immense hits to their stock prices due to the consistently stubborn high prices for oil. I doubt the situation will improve for Chevron anytime soon, which should generate incredible opportunities for Noble Energy, Inc. Chevron's problems hint towards more ominous issues than its mere 0.6% dip in stock price. Reports that I have heard allude to leaks in the ocean floor due to drilling, which have since been corrected, but could point to shoddy drilling guidelines, from Chevron.

Other competitors are not enjoying the same good fortunes as Noble. First Solar, Inc. is another example. Its stock sank 5.32% to 20.83. Yes, First Solar is usually considered a relatively minor player in the energy market. However, since it is a leader in solar energy, its trends are more closely scrutinized because the ramifications could be monumental for other energy firms. I think First Solar Inc.’s sluggish performance is even more alarming given the fact that the government just approved a massive loan for a groundbreaking solar project in Los Angeles. If the project were so foolproof, why hasn’t the market reacted accordingly in a more favorable manner? I, for one, refuse to buy into the notion that this project can put First Solar comfortably into the black.

Solar Inc. is definitely going to have to grow and mature, as a company, before being considered anywhere near Noble Energy. I know this is going to take some time, as Noble has worked hard at establishing itself in an already crowded, competitive sector.

El Paso corp, another of Noble Energy’s competitors, has a much more promising chance to keep up with Noble Energy’s unheralded success. Though the price per share closed down slightly, .57% to 29.78, this is only a .17 cent drop per share. When you consider the position of the closing price in comparison to the 52-week high, of 30.53, the closing price is within one dollar of that. Also, reports stated that an overwhelming majority of stockholders approved the blockbuster merger between El Paso Corp, and Kinder-Morgan (to the tune of 79 percent). This keeps investors on the same page as management, and transparency is the key to building relations within the company, and between the company and general public. These are the fundamental building blocks of higher share prices over the long-run, and sometimes even the short run.

This past January, Marathon Oil increased its dividend to shareholders by a rather significant amount. A 13% increase quarterly to .17 per share should be very inspiring to investors, but it had no backing apparently, because the price slipped 14% over the span of a few months. However, now I see no reason why investors are not very excited now about this particular stock. Marathon Oil just finalized an agreement to sell its substantial Alaskan assets. Two specific things should have investors glowing about Marathon Oil. The first of which is the fact that the dividend went up substantially, coupled with the fact that now, Marathon Oil has proven that is has a cash source to back up this dividend, via the Alaska deal, to sustain it for a pretty lengthy period. I don’t see why their stock price would be slipping so much, given the fact that they just got news of a large infusion of cash on their balance sheet. The question is why is that astronomical influx of cash failing to inspire investors? 

I think that whatever is working for Noble Energy now, will continue to work, at least throughout the remainder of this quarter. There is no reason the stock couldn’t reach a hundred dollars/share by the end of this year. I see compelling evidence, and strong alliances backing it, which justifies the relatively high share price in regards to its competitors. I believe that security comes with a price, and right now there are very few sure things out there. Noble Energy is a rarity, in this regard, because I see it quickly becoming a sure thing. Time will tell whether or not this energy giant has the clout and staying power to hold on to its lion's share of the market, and continue to dwarf already lofty public expectations.

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